jackb napísal: 06 nov 2021, 22:29lebo z tvojich postov vieme, ze vysoku umrtnost na konci leta na Floride pripisujes tomu, ze sice boli premoreni alphou, ale nie deltou.

teda dnes sa premoruju ludia deltou a budu mat proti nej protilatky po urcitu dobu. na urovni jedincov, ale nie je mozne urcit ako dlho. potom pride nova mutacia, ktora prevladne nad deltou a cele premorenie moze zacat opat.

The durability of immunity against reinfection by SARS-CoV-2: a comparative evolutionary study

Findings
We obtained antibody optical density data for six human-infecting coronaviruses, extending from 128 days to 28 years after infection between 1984 and 2020. These data provided a means to estimate profiles of the typical antibody decline and probabilities of reinfection over time under endemic conditions. Reinfection by SARS-CoV-2 under endemic conditions would likely occur between 3 months and 5·1 years after peak antibody response, with a median of 16 months. This protection is less than half the duration revealed for the endemic coronaviruses circulating among humans (5–95% quantiles 15 months to 10 years for HCoV-OC43, 31 months to 12 years for HCoV-NL63, and 16 months to 12 years for HCoV-229E). For SARS-CoV, the 5–95% quantiles were 4 months to 6 years, whereas the 95% quantiles for MERS-CoV were inconsistent by dataset.

Discussion
Our estimated times to reinfection are consistent with the low numbers of validated cases of reinfection. However, our results caution that reinfection will become increasingly common as pandemic disease transitions into endemic disease. Our estimated timing of the waning of immunity can facilitate quantitative analyses of all policy decision making about individuals who have recovered from COVID-19 and who might be viewed as temporarily immune to reinfection. In particular, our estimate argues strongly against the claim that a long-standing resolution of the epidemic could arise due to herd immunity from natural infection or that mitigation of the long-term risks of morbidity and mortality can be achieved without vaccination. Relying on herd immunity without widespread vaccination jeopardises millions of lives, entailing high rates of reinfection, morbidity, and death. In areas with low vaccination, our data-driven analysis reinforces the need for continued safety practices such as social distancing, proper indoor ventilation, and mask wearing to avoid reinfection as pandemic conditions continue. These estimates of the likely time course of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection also have implications for travel restrictions, decisions regarding how students obtain their education, as well as the opening and closing of economic sectors in response to predictive models of the epidemic. Epidemiological modelling, which has served a crucial role in public health policy and disease management in the time of COVID-19, has been restricted in time scale and vague in long-term implications because of the absence of any previous rigorous base-case estimate of the time of waning of immunity for SARS-CoV-2. Further modelling in light of our results is warranted.

Undue public confidence in the long-term durability of immunity following natural infection by SARS-CoV-2 has been shown to contribute to vaccine hesitancy, perhaps because of a false equivalence with the long-term immunity after natural recovery from evolutionarily divergent viruses causing diseases such as measles, mumps, and rubella. By contrast, numerous respiratory viruses such as influenza, human rhinoviruses, or coronaviruses can overcome the immunity conferred by previous infections by evolving new variants in the protein domains most frequently surveilled and targeted by the human immune system. Just over a year into the COVID-19 pandemic, novel SARS-CoV-2 variants that can vary in severity of infection and evoke differential immune system responses and that can thwart the durability of immunity started arising. Such novel variants probably play a similar evolutionary role in the persistence of lower-severity, endemic human coronaviruses. Mitigation of the potential evolution of immune-evading SARS-CoV-2 variants in the near-future might depend crucially on a rapid global deployment of vaccination, which can induce higher immunogenicity than natural infection.

ako uz vieme, reinfekcia je vzacna, preto clovek, ktory sa nakazil alfou, sa deltou s realnym dopadom nakazi len vynimocne
bavime sa o realnom ochoreni, nie o pozitivnej vzorke

jackb napísal: 08 nov 2021, 9:56pre vacsinu populacie je zivot pri reinfekcii rovnaky ako pri primarnej

mierny az asymptomaticky priebeh

retkvic napísal: 08 nov 2021, 10:22 @jackb ako to je v uk, uz budu ockovat tretou davkou aj mladsie rocniky, teda automaticky po 6 mesiacoch od druhej davky, alebo sa o tom este nehovori?

jackb napísal: 08 nov 2021, 10:30pre ludi, ktori nie su rizikovi