M142 napísal: 07 feb 2022, 12:47 "predikcia" ked si len tak z voleja tipnete cislo, tak to rozhodne nie je predikcia. kazdopadne je ten pocet hospitalizovanych stale slusny.

80% of Malawi had already been infected with covid prior to their Delta wave, with minimal ill effect - very few hospitalizations, almost no deaths.

With only 4% of the population vaccinated, omicron came & went in Malawi - and no one noticed.

beardie napísal: 08 feb 2022, 11:36 https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... 4316459120

‘Shambolic’ Covid PCR testing rules meant one in three who isolated were never contagious
Many forced to quarantine did not need to because threshold for positive tests was set very low, says study

Up to a third of people who tested positive for coronavirus by Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests were not contagious and did not need to self-isolate, a new study suggests.

Research led by academics from the University of Oxford found that many laboratories are setting the positivity bar very low, meaning they are picking up people who are “a danger to no one”.

PCR tests work by cycling swab samples through different temperatures to trigger replication, which releases a chemical showing that the virus is present.

The fewer cycles that are needed to detect the chemical, the greater the viral load and the more likely someone is infected.

There is no definitive cycle threshold level for positivity. However, a review by the University of Oxford found that 30 was a good cut-off, because the virus was unlikely to replicate after that - particularly in asymptomatic people. Other groups have suggested around 32 to 33.

However, Freedom of Information requests made by members of the public and compiled by the University of Oxford show that NHS trusts are using vastly different cut-off thresholds, with little regulation from the Government. Some are as low as 25, while others are as high as 45.

The figures also show that between 23 and 37 per cent of people who were told they were positive had a cycle threshold value above 30. For one in 20, it was higher than 40.

Covid PCR test system is ‘absolute chaos’
Dr Tom Jefferson, co-author and an epidemiologist at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said: “We found that about one-third of people who isolated probably didn’t need to.

“PCR positivity means that you can tell people to isolate and ruin their lives basically, even though in a large proportion of these cases, they are not infectious.

“It’s absolute chaos. The whole regulation of these tests seems to be shambolic.”

Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells NHS Trust counts a PCR test as positive if it is detectable within 27 or fewer cycles. The trust also changes its criteria during periods of low community prevalence, dropping the bar to below 25.

Likewise, Milton Keynes University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust has one test picking up cases below 25 and another below 31.

At the other end of the scale, NHS trusts setting the bar at 45 include Manchester University, County Durham and Darlington, Mid and South Essex and Royal United Hospitals Bath.

Likewise Plymouth NHS Trust, Coventry and Warwickshire NHS Trust, Greater Glasgow NHS Board, University Hospitals Sussex, Torbay and South Devon NHS Foundation Trust and North Cumbria operate between 40 and 45 cycles.

At Wye Valley NHS Trust, the cut-off is lower than 38 cycles. Liverpool also has a cut-off of lower than 38, but any higher counts are sent to an analyst to assess whether it is a weak positive or requires a repeat test.

Other NHS trusts do not know what the threshold for positivity is, because they are using “black box” tests that only give a positive or negative result.

The UK Health Security Agency said there are at least 80 different PCR platforms in use across the country. Each has its own different limit of detection – the lowest concentration of virus that can be reliably and consistently detected by the assay - making threshold values incomparable.

However, the new study showed that in one instance, five NHS trusts were using the same Cepheid GenXpert test, yet were working from four different positivity thresholds - between 35 and 45.

Leeds was using a cut-off of 35 while Blackpool was using 38, North Cumbria 41, Chester 45 and Glasgow 45. Guy’s and St Thomas’ said it was a “black box” test and they did not know the threshold.

Critics argue that high cycle threshold scores may simply be picking up the virus at trace levels in the community and do not indicate an infection.

A three-point increase in CT value is roughly equivalent to a 10-fold decrease in the quantity of viral genetic material, so the difference between detection at 25 and 45 is sizeable.

‘We cannot afford to keep isolating people’
Scientists have called for the cycle thresholds to be made public, so it is possible to see the level of infection for each test - as happens in Switzerland - amid fears many people are being swept up in the figures who are not infectious.

Currently, laboratories must report positive cases to the UKHSA but do not need to say which one of 80 tests they are using, or reveal the threshold at which they deem a test to be positive.

They also said it would help to monitor the effectiveness of the vaccine and how the infection differs by age group.

Professor Sheila Bird, formerly programme leader at the MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said it might be helpful for cycle threshold levels to be given alongside each positive test.


Prof Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said: “It’s deeply worrying. When you have more virus circulating in the community, the potential for contamination is greater. Studies have shown that people can be easily contaminated with a viral fragment.

“The problem is the panic of the pandemic meant that we developed policies at a speed we’ve never seen before and we haven’t looked at them to find out which are evidence-based.

“Accurately knowing who is infectious is incredibly important for people going about their daily lives, the economy, our social lives and our wellbeing. The impact on the economy is now coming home, and it is clear that we cannot afford to keep isolating people.

"It's also clear that members of the public were worried about this and submitting sensible Freedom of Information requests, but were met with contradictory responses attempting to explain a system which is shambolic in terms of governance and regulation."

The study will be published on the website of Collateral Global, a charity committed to researching the impact of Covid measures.

Between Dec 28, 2020, and Oct 4, 2021, 842 974 individuals were fully vaccinated (two doses), and were matched (1:1) to an equal number of unvaccinated individuals (total study cohort n=1 685 948). For the outcome SARS-CoV-2 infection of any severity, the vaccine effectiveness of BNT162b2 waned progressively over time, from 92% (95% CI 92 to 93; p<0·001) at 15–30 days, to 47% (39 to 55; p<0·001) at 121–180 days, and to 23% (−2 to 41; p=0·07) from day 211 onwards. Waning was slightly slower for mRNA-1273, with a vaccine effectiveness of 96% (94 to 97; p<0·001) at 15–30 days and 59% (18 to 79; p=0·012) from day 181 onwards. Waning was also slightly slower for heterologous ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 plus an mRNA vaccine, for which vaccine effectiveness was 89% (79 to 94; p<0·001) at 15–30 days and 66% (41 to 80; p<0·001) from day 121 onwards. By contrast, vaccine effectiveness for homologous ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine was 68% (52 to 79; p<0·001) at 15–30 days, with no detectable effectiveness from day 121 onwards (−19% [–98 to 28]; p=0·49). For the outcome of severe COVID-19, vaccine effectiveness waned from 89% (82 to 93; p<0·001) at 15–30 days to 64% (44 to 77; p<0·001) from day 121 onwards. Overall, there was some evidence for lower vaccine effectiveness in men than in women and in older individuals than in younger individuals.

Here we used national healthcare databases from the US Department of Veterans Affairs to build a cohort of 153,760 individuals with COVID-19, as well as two sets of control cohorts with 5,637,647 (contemporary controls) and 5,859,411 (historical controls) individuals, to estimate risks and 1-year burdens of a set of pre-specified incident cardiovascular outcomes. We show that, beyond the first 30 d after infection, individuals with COVID-19 are at increased risk of incident cardiovascular disease spanning several categories, including cerebrovascular disorders, dysrhythmias, ischemic and non-ischemic heart disease, pericarditis, myocarditis, heart failure and thromboembolic disease.

12:50Pri prekonaní omikronu bez príznakov človek nezíska takmer žiadnu ochranu pred ďalšou nákazou, povedal šéf analytikov Matej Mišík.

Izraelskí vedci sú na stope jednej z najväčších záhad covidu. Tajomstvo spočíva vo vitamíne D

Prečo majú niektorí ľudia s koronavírusom ťažký priebeh ochorenia, skončia v nemocnici, prípadne infekcia im prináša fatálne následky a iní ju prekonajú tak, že si chorobu ani nevšimnú? To bola dosiaľ jedna z najväčších záhad pandémie covidu-19. Izraelskí vedci ju zrejme rozlúskli. Vo svojej štúdii našli prepojenie medzi nedostatkom vitamínu D a vážnejšími zdravotnými komplikáciami.

O tom, akú silu má tento dôležitý vitamín, sa vie už dávno. Zvykne sa volať aj „slnečný“, keďže pochádza z priameho slnečného žiarenia. Pomáha posilniť imunitný systém, aby sa vysporiadal s vírusmi, ktoré napádajú pľúca. Je tiež životne dôležitý pre zdravie kostí. Vedci z Izraela teraz konštatovali, že vitamín D je „jedným dielom komplexnej skladačky“, ktorá je základom závažného priebehu ochorenia covidu-19.

Pomer 50:10
Vo svojej štúdii, zverejnenej v odbornom časopise PLOS One zistili výrazné rozdiely, keď porovnali pacientov, ktorí pred ochorením mali dostatočnú hladinu vitamínu D, s tými, ktorí ju nemali. U asi polovice ľudí, ktorým vitamín D chýbal pred tým, ako dostali covid-19, sa rozvinulo závažné ochorenie v porovnaní s menej ako 10 percentami ľudí, ktorí mali dostatočnú hladinu vitamínu v krvi.

Za referenčnú hodnotu sa považuje viac ako 20 nanogramov na mililiter krvi pre väčšinu ľudí, uviedlo americké Centrum pre kontrolu a prevenciu chorôb, z ktorého citoval web businessinsider.com.

Slovensko nema ministra zdravotnictva, preto to riesi ten blbec. Preco inak by sa mal o chorobu, zaujimat pedseda vlady, ked ma fungujuce ministerstva vnutra, zdravotnictva a bezpecnostne zlozky? Podal ku COVID19 stanovisko pan moskovskeho hradu?

Kedze pri utecencoch odmietas googlit, daj si dva obrazky, aby si spracovat “vyvrazdenie Nemecka Merkelovou pomocou COVID-19. Nabuduce skus najskor hladat informacie a potom tu nepricetne vyvreskovat ako opity Mazurek na Hlavnej stanici pred rodinou turistov. Dakujeme a pekny den

Trump rozum nikdy nemal
2000 osob v krajine s 80 milionmi ludi naozaj nie je dovod na riesenie cohokolvek. hodinu statistiky sme mali pri "raketovom naraste kriminality v Nemecku" a nebudem sa ku tomu vracat.
70% obyvatelov Nemecka sa nakazi, 81% sa nic nestane (vid obrazok), prejdu to ako chripku. takze nohy v teple a nechaj si hystericke zacyklene vresky pre kamaratov v krcme.

zdochynajuci kon SNS kope a zdiela bludy. https://m.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1 ... 382&type=3